What is one drug worth, given the odds?
A drug in development earns nothing until it is approved, and most never are. So it is valued the way licensing deals price it: lay out what each remaining phase costs and what the drug would sell, then weight every amount by the chance the drug is still alive when it happens. That is risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV).
The odds and phase lengths come from the largest public study of drug development (BIO, Informa and QLS, 12,728 phase transitions, 2011–2020), for your disease area. Everything else is yours to enter. One asset at a time; for a company with several, value each and ask how much the platform costs to run on top. New to the method? Read how a drug company is actually valued.
1. The asset
Sets the published odds and phase lengths. They differ a lot: cancer drugs reach approval far less often than blood-disorder drugs.
Where is it now?
An illustrative valuation under stated assumptions: not investment advice, not a fairness opinion and not a forecast. The success rates are industry averages, mostly from larger companies, and do not describe your asset. Tax and sales after exclusivity ends are not modelled. Your answers are valued on our server and not stored.